Groundhog Day 2027 falls on Tuesday, February 2, 2027. It is not a federal holiday and closes nothing.
The ceremony at Gobbler’s Knob in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania takes place shortly after sunrise.
February 2 is not an arbitrary date. It falls almost exactly midway between the December solstice and the March equinox, which is why it carries so many overlapping observances: the Celtic festival of Imbolc, the Christian feast of Candlemas, and the German weather-lore tradition that produced the groundhog.
Table of Contents
When is Groundhog Day 2027?
Tuesday, February 2, 2027. The date is fixed and never moves.
| Detail | Value |
|---|---|
| Date | Tuesday, February 2, 2027 |
| Rule | Fixed date, February 2 |
| Federal holiday | No |
| Location | Gobbler’s Knob, Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania |
| Also | Candlemas; Imbolc |
| Day of year | 33 of 365 |
The tradition has three different starting dates
This is the part most pages get wrong by picking one and stating it flatly. Which year Groundhog Day “began” depends entirely on what you count as the beginning.
| Year | What happened | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 1840 | The earliest documented evidence of Pennsylvania townspeople consulting a groundhog for weather — a diary entry identified by folklorist Don Yoder | CNN |
| 1886 | The first newspaper proclamation, in The Punxsutawney Spirit, by editor Clymer Freas: the beast had not seen its shadow | Stormfax |
| 1887 | The first organised ceremony at Gobbler’s Knob, conventionally treated as the first official Groundhog Day | HISTORY; Britannica |
Because Pennsylvania Dutch immigrants arrived mostly in the mid-to-late eighteenth century, the Library of Congress considers it likely the custom existed for decades before any of these records (CNN).
The name “Punxsutawney Phil” is considerably later than any of them, coming into use in the 1960s.
The first Groundhog Day ended with the groundhog being eaten
1887 was the year of the Groundhog Picnic. The earliest nineteenth-century observances involved eating the groundhog after it made its prediction (CNN, citing folklorist Don Yoder).
The modern arrangement — a climate-controlled burrow, year-round care, and an Inner Circle in top hats and tuxedos who conduct proceedings in the Pennsylvania Dutch dialect — developed much later (HISTORY; VisitPA).
What the record actually shows
Between 1887 and 2023, Phil saw his shadow 107 times and did not see it 20 times, according to NOAA. Ten years from the late 1800s are lost because no records were kept, per the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club. In 1942 he produced a partial shadow, and in 1943 he did not appear at all — the records do not say why (CBS News, citing NOAA).
The lopsidedness is the point. A forecast landing on “six more weeks” in roughly 84% of recorded years is not responding to conditions. It is close to a constant.
The accuracy figures, and who actually produced them
Three different numbers circulate, and they are not from the same source.
| Figure | Period | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 30% correct | Last 10 years | NOAA |
| 35% correct | Last 20 years, 2006–2025 | NOAA |
| 39% correct | Since 1887 | Stormfax Weather Almanac, not NOAA |
The widely quoted 39% figure is frequently attributed to NOAA and is not theirs. It comes from the Stormfax Weather Almanac. NOAA’s own assessments cover the last ten and twenty years and grade Phil at 30% and 35%.
NOAA’s determinations are based on February and March temperature averages for the United States (CBS News).
NOAA ranks Phil 17th out of 19 — behind three taxidermied groundhogs
NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information publishes an annual “Grading the Groundhogs” ranking, scoring prognosticators on twenty years of February and March temperature data.
| Rank | Prognosticator | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Staten Island Chuck, New York | 85% |
| 2 | Lander Lil, Wyoming — a prairie dog statue | 75% |
| 3 | General Beauregard Lee, Georgia | 80% |
| … | ||
| 17 | Punxsutawney Phil, Pennsylvania | 35% |
Phil finished 17th of 19, behind a trio of taxidermied groundhogs and a statue (NBC10 Philadelphia, reporting NOAA NCEI; NOAA).
NOAA’s own comment is dry: “Although he is not the most accurate seasonal prognosticator, we would be remiss not to honor the longest-running weather-forecasting groundhog in the United States.”
Ranking positions have shifted between years — Lander Lil overtook General Beauregard Lee for second in a recent edition — so check the current list rather than treating these placements as fixed.
One count that does not agree
NOAA gives 107 shadow sightings and 20 early-spring predictions through 2023. Figures announced by Punxsutawney’s own Inner Circle give 109 and 21 over a comparable span.
Neither is obviously wrong. The gap likely reflects different handling of the 1942 partial shadow and the 1943 non-appearance, and possibly the disputed early years. It is worth knowing that the organisation running the ceremony and the agency grading it do not agree on the tally.
Groundhog Day 2027 closures
| Institution | Tuesday, February 2, 2027 |
|---|---|
| Federal offices | Open |
| Banks and Federal Reserve | Open |
| U.S. Postal Service | Normal delivery |
| NYSE and Nasdaq | Open, normal trading |
| Pennsylvania state offices | Open |
| Public schools | Open |
Nothing closes for Groundhog Day, including in Pennsylvania. Punxsutawney itself sees tens of thousands of visitors, and the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club runs a multi-day event around it (HISTORY).
Other groundhogs
Punxsutawney Phil is the best known but not the only one. Other communities run their own ceremonies, and they frequently disagree with each other on the same morning.
| Groundhog | Location |
|---|---|
| Punxsutawney Phil | Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania |
| Staten Island Chuck | New York City |
| Birmingham Bill | Birmingham, Alabama |
| Shubenacadie Sam | Nova Scotia, Canada |
Source: HISTORY.
Groundhog Day dates 2025 to 2032
| Year | February 2 falls on |
|---|---|
| 2025 | Sunday |
| 2026 | Monday |
| 2027 | Tuesday |
| 2028 | Wednesday |
| 2029 | Friday |
| 2030 | Saturday |
| 2031 | Sunday |
| 2032 | Monday |
A fixed-date observance advances one weekday per year and two across a leap year, which is why 2028 to 2029 skips Thursday.
What Groundhog Day 2027 is not
Groundhog Day is not a federal holiday, a state holiday, or a day of observance with any official designation. It appears nowhere in 5 U.S.C. 6103.
It did not originate in America. The underlying tradition is European weather lore attached to Candlemas, in which a badger or hedgehog was the forecaster. German settlers in Pennsylvania substituted the groundhog because badgers were not to hand (Britannica).
It has no forecasting value. NOAA’s record shows a prediction distribution that does not track observed outcomes.
It did not definitively begin in 1887. That is the date of the first organised ceremony, not of the tradition.
Frequently asked questions
What day is Groundhog Day 2027?
Tuesday, February 2, 2027. The date is fixed to February 2 in every year. It is not a federal holiday and nothing closes for it.
How accurate is Punxsutawney Phil?
NOAA grades him at 30% over the last decade and 35% over the last twenty years — 17th out of 19 prognosticators, behind three taxidermied groundhogs and a prairie dog statue. The often-quoted 39% figure is from the Stormfax Weather Almanac rather than NOAA. Between 1887 and 2023 he saw his shadow 107 times against 20 early-spring calls, a distribution closer to a constant than to a forecast (NOAA; CBS News).
When did Groundhog Day start?
Three answers, depending on what you count. 1840 is the earliest documented instance of townspeople consulting a groundhog. 1886 is the first newspaper proclamation, in The Punxsutawney Spirit. 1887 is the first organised ceremony at Gobbler’s Knob and the date most sources give. The underlying Candlemas tradition is older than all three.
Sources
- Britannica, Groundhog Day — https://www.britannica.com/topic/Groundhog-Day
- HISTORY, First Groundhog Day, February 2, 1887 — https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/february-2/first-groundhog-day
- HISTORY, Groundhog Day: Meaning, Origins and Facts — https://www.history.com/articles/groundhog-day-history-and-facts
- CNN, The bizarre history of Groundhog Day and Punxsutawney Phil — https://edition.cnn.com/2023/02/01/us/groundhog-day-weird-history-punxsutawney-phil-cec
- Stormfax, Groundhog Day History — https://www.stormfax.com/ghogday.htm
- Visit Pennsylvania, History of Groundhog Day — https://www.visitpa.com/blog/post/history-groundhog-day/
- NOAA, Grading the Groundhogs — https://www.noaa.gov/heritage/stories/grading-groundhogs
- NOAA NCEI, Groundhog Day Forecasts and Climate History — https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/groundhog-day-forecasts-and-climate-history
- CBS News, How accurate are Punxsutawney Phil’s Groundhog Day predictions? — https://www.cbsnews.com/news/punxsutawney-phil-groundhog-day-predictions-accuracy/
- NBC10 Philadelphia, NOAA throws shade on Punxsutawney Phil’s prediction accuracy — https://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/critter-corner/groundhog-grades-punxsutawney-phil/4093550/
